Bangkok,
January 21, 2010 says a new report by the World Bank that the economic
recovery that the world is witnessing now will slow later this year with
the decline of the impact of economic stimulus programs. The
report added that the financial markets are still concerned, and that
the demand from the private sector is still below expectations amid
rising unemployment.
The report warns, "Global Economic Prospects 2010," which was released today that although the worst effects of the crisis have already signed, the global economic recovery is still fragile. The report predicts that the effects of the crisis lead to a change of scenery for finance and growth over the next ten years.
According to this report, is expected to grow in global GDP, which declined by 2.2 per cent in 2009, 2.7 per cent this year, and 3.2 per cent in 2011. [1] The outlook for developing countries to achieve recovery relatively strong, which will grow by 5.2 percent this year, and 5.8 per cent in 2011, compared to 1.2 per cent in 2009. The GDP in rich countries, which declined by 3.3 per cent in 2009, it is expected to rise at a less rapid pace by 1.8 per cent and 2.3 per cent in 2010 and 2011 respectively. It is also expected that the growing volume of world trade, which fell substantially amounted to 14.4 per cent in 2009, 4.3 per cent this year and 6.2 per cent in 2011.
Although this scenario is likely, the thick clouds associated with the uncertainty still obscure prospects. Growth rates in 2011 could be between 2.5 and 3.4 per cent, depending on the level of confidence of consumers and businesses in the quarterly periods next few, and the timing of the decline of the impact of economic stimulus programs and cash.
Speaking about the report, said Justin Lin, First Deputy Chairman of the Bank for Development Economics and Chief Economist, "Unfortunately, we can not expect a recovery from this deep and strenuous overnight, It will take several years to be re-building countries' economies and create more jobs. leave this crisis have a dramatic impact on the poor. need poorest countries in the world that rely on grants or subsidized lending to between 30 and 50 billion dollars of extra funding just to keep up to maintain social programs that existed before the crisis. "
In this environment, which is still weak, it is expected that oil prices will remain generally stable at an average of $ 76; rise prices of other commodities on average by 3 per cent a year during 2010 and 2011.
The report goes on to warn that it will take several years, despite the return to positive rates of growth, to compensate losses economies which have suffered already. The report estimates that the number of people living in extreme poverty (on less than $ 1.25 per person per day) would rise by 64 million people in the year 2010 compared to what it would be like if there were no crisis.
Moreover, it is expected over the past five to ten next lead increased to avoid risk-taking, and the application of regulatory measures more prudent, and the need to curb some lending practices most serious that prevailed during the recovery period before the outbreak of the crisis to the scarcity of capital and high cost for developing countries.
, Said Andrew Burns, lead author of the report, "with increased stresses international financial conditions, will suffer companies operating in developing countries from higher borrowing costs, lower levels of credit, shrinking international capital flows. As a result, the trends growth rates in developing countries may be reduced by 0.2 - 0.7 per cent over the past five to seven coming from what was will be reached if the funding is available and affordable, as was the case during the period of economic recovery. "
While likely to be affected all forms of funding by the crisis, the foreign direct investment (FDI) will face fewer restrictions than debt flows. But the parent companies will suffer from the high cost of capital, which would limit their ability to finance some projects. As a result, it is expected to fall FDI flows from the peak levels of 3.9 per cent of GDP for developing countries that reached in 2007 to around 2.8-3.0 per cent in the medium term. May be consequences arising from such a serious decline because foreign direct investments represent up to 20 per cent of the total investments in the areas of sub-Saharan Africa, Europe and Central Asia and Latin America.
In this regard, said Hans Timmer, director of the Development Prospects Group at the World Bank, "while developing countries can not avoid international financial conditions more stringent, they can, but should, should strive to reduce the cost of borrowing rates local, and encourage capital markets local funds by expanding regional financial centers and improving competition and regulation in the banking sectors of local. Although it is likely to take these steps and a long time to come to fruition, it could lead to expanding access to capital, and assistance in developing countries developing a second on a higher growth path, which led to deviation crisis for him. "
The report concludes that the international financial situation lax during the years 2003-2007 contributed to an increase in the availability of funding and the high growth rates in developing countries. The big drop in the cost of borrowing rates encouraged increased international capital flows and loans offered by local banks, which contributed to the increase in investment rates in developing countries by 30 per cent. Also contributed to the rapid expansion resulting in total capital to achieve more than half of the increase of 1.5 percentage points in the rate of growth of potential output among developing countries.
Although the rates of very strong growth experienced by developing countries during the period of economic recovery may reflect underlying growth potential, the financial conditions that fostered not viable and clearly.
The report warns, "Global Economic Prospects 2010," which was released today that although the worst effects of the crisis have already signed, the global economic recovery is still fragile. The report predicts that the effects of the crisis lead to a change of scenery for finance and growth over the next ten years.
According to this report, is expected to grow in global GDP, which declined by 2.2 per cent in 2009, 2.7 per cent this year, and 3.2 per cent in 2011. [1] The outlook for developing countries to achieve recovery relatively strong, which will grow by 5.2 percent this year, and 5.8 per cent in 2011, compared to 1.2 per cent in 2009. The GDP in rich countries, which declined by 3.3 per cent in 2009, it is expected to rise at a less rapid pace by 1.8 per cent and 2.3 per cent in 2010 and 2011 respectively. It is also expected that the growing volume of world trade, which fell substantially amounted to 14.4 per cent in 2009, 4.3 per cent this year and 6.2 per cent in 2011.
Although this scenario is likely, the thick clouds associated with the uncertainty still obscure prospects. Growth rates in 2011 could be between 2.5 and 3.4 per cent, depending on the level of confidence of consumers and businesses in the quarterly periods next few, and the timing of the decline of the impact of economic stimulus programs and cash.
Speaking about the report, said Justin Lin, First Deputy Chairman of the Bank for Development Economics and Chief Economist, "Unfortunately, we can not expect a recovery from this deep and strenuous overnight, It will take several years to be re-building countries' economies and create more jobs. leave this crisis have a dramatic impact on the poor. need poorest countries in the world that rely on grants or subsidized lending to between 30 and 50 billion dollars of extra funding just to keep up to maintain social programs that existed before the crisis. "
In this environment, which is still weak, it is expected that oil prices will remain generally stable at an average of $ 76; rise prices of other commodities on average by 3 per cent a year during 2010 and 2011.
The report goes on to warn that it will take several years, despite the return to positive rates of growth, to compensate losses economies which have suffered already. The report estimates that the number of people living in extreme poverty (on less than $ 1.25 per person per day) would rise by 64 million people in the year 2010 compared to what it would be like if there were no crisis.
Moreover, it is expected over the past five to ten next lead increased to avoid risk-taking, and the application of regulatory measures more prudent, and the need to curb some lending practices most serious that prevailed during the recovery period before the outbreak of the crisis to the scarcity of capital and high cost for developing countries.
, Said Andrew Burns, lead author of the report, "with increased stresses international financial conditions, will suffer companies operating in developing countries from higher borrowing costs, lower levels of credit, shrinking international capital flows. As a result, the trends growth rates in developing countries may be reduced by 0.2 - 0.7 per cent over the past five to seven coming from what was will be reached if the funding is available and affordable, as was the case during the period of economic recovery. "
While likely to be affected all forms of funding by the crisis, the foreign direct investment (FDI) will face fewer restrictions than debt flows. But the parent companies will suffer from the high cost of capital, which would limit their ability to finance some projects. As a result, it is expected to fall FDI flows from the peak levels of 3.9 per cent of GDP for developing countries that reached in 2007 to around 2.8-3.0 per cent in the medium term. May be consequences arising from such a serious decline because foreign direct investments represent up to 20 per cent of the total investments in the areas of sub-Saharan Africa, Europe and Central Asia and Latin America.
In this regard, said Hans Timmer, director of the Development Prospects Group at the World Bank, "while developing countries can not avoid international financial conditions more stringent, they can, but should, should strive to reduce the cost of borrowing rates local, and encourage capital markets local funds by expanding regional financial centers and improving competition and regulation in the banking sectors of local. Although it is likely to take these steps and a long time to come to fruition, it could lead to expanding access to capital, and assistance in developing countries developing a second on a higher growth path, which led to deviation crisis for him. "
The report concludes that the international financial situation lax during the years 2003-2007 contributed to an increase in the availability of funding and the high growth rates in developing countries. The big drop in the cost of borrowing rates encouraged increased international capital flows and loans offered by local banks, which contributed to the increase in investment rates in developing countries by 30 per cent. Also contributed to the rapid expansion resulting in total capital to achieve more than half of the increase of 1.5 percentage points in the rate of growth of potential output among developing countries.
Although the rates of very strong growth experienced by developing countries during the period of economic recovery may reflect underlying growth potential, the financial conditions that fostered not viable and clearly.
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